Bali road map in tatters

The Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban Ki Moon, pleaded with the 155 heads of state who attended the Copenhagen summit on climate change. He reminded them that this “was one of those rare and defining moments in history and that they should seize the opportunity to show leadership. This will be your political legacy for all time. Unfortunately, the leaders failed to show courage. The Bali Road Map that was expected to deliver a fair, ambitious and binding (FAB) agreement at Copenhagen ended on December 19th 2009, with a mere Accord. This accepts that the average global temperature must not be allowed to rise above 2 degrees Celsius. Many of the 40,000 people who gathered in Copenhagen, and countless millions around the world, had hoped for what was being called a FAB deal. Billboards around the Bella Center, where the Conference of the Parties (COP15) was held, linked Copenhagen with Hopenhagen. What was achieved holds out little hope as the big boys, the U.S, China, India and Brazil had cobbled together and Accord with none of the FAB elements.

The Accord states that this can only be achieved through major cuts in emissions from rich countries. There are no dates, or timelines, or sanctions for non-compliance. Efforts to stop global warming must not derail economic progress in emerging economies. The Accord provides money for adaptation initiatives in economically poor countries which are likely to suffer heavily from climate change.  Between now and 2012 the fund should provide $30 billion for such projects.  This is to be scaled up to $100 billion by 2020. The Accord also makes money available to economically poor nations to enable them to protect their forests from loggers.  Finally, the Accord was ‘noted’ rather than ‘adopted’ by the assembly.

The fait accompli was presented to poor nations with the implied threat that if they did not sign up to the deal they might lose the Adaptation Fund which is an essential element in their ability to adapt to climate change. Naturally, people such as Yvo de Boer, the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, attempted to portray the failure to reach a FAB agreement as a temporary glitch which will be put right at COP 16 in Mexico in December 2010.

The negotiations process embedded in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was also left in tatters. Undoubtedly, this process is torturous, but it is quite inclusive. It involved over 190 countries and representatives from Civil Society Organisations (CSO) attempting to forge agreement on a number of issues such as cutting greenhouse emissions, providing money for adaptation  programmes and clean technology.

Because of poor planning by the Danish government many of the CSOs were effectively evicted from the conference centre on the Tuesday of week two. The Bella Centre could, at best, accommodate 15,000 people.  Over 30,000 turned up and the result was chaos. The police handling of demonstrators was incompetent and  sometimes brutal.

Global Warming science becomes more apocalyptic. While politicians dithered about how to deal with this global challenge, the warnings from the scientific community are become even more apocalyptic on two fronts. First of all, things are happening at a much faster pace than previously thought.  On the evening of December 14th 2009, scientists from the Hadley Centre climate change division made a presentation at the Bella Center.  They said that even if emissions peak in 2015, and decrease rapidly after that at about 3% per annum, there may only be a 50:50 chance of keeping global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius. More ominously, in terms of the inaction in Copenhagen at significantly reducing greenhouse gases, the Hadley document makes the point that every delay of 10 years in the peak emissions would add about a further 0.5 degree Celsius.  In the light of this science, the commitment to preventing a temperature rise above 2 degrees Celsius, without putting any credible mechanisms in place to achieve it, is merely play acting.  Nimmo Bassey, the chair of Friends of the Earth summed up the meeting, “this is a disaster for the poor nations - the urgency of climate change has not been considered.”

Fr Sean McDonagh SSC is a researcher on Justice Peace Integrity Creation (JPIC) priorities.

http://www.columban.org.au/Archives/features/2009/COP15-Copenhagen-Updates